69. Impact vs. Probability

Just because something is “unlikely” to happen doesn’t mean it can’t take you out of the game.

We often use the phrase “This is very unlikely to happen” to express “we really shouldn’t worry about this,” without asking ourselves, “What impact would it have if it did happen?”

Frequently, when something negatively affects the organization, we wonder: How could this have happened? Why didn’t we see it coming? What if it was foreseen, but we ignored it?

The trap is that our biases often focus on the likelihood of occurrence when we identify that the potential impact is significant but the effort to minimize it is high. We choose not to pay the cost of minimizing the risk, downplaying its potential impact just because the probability of occurrence is low. In other words, we mix everything up to justify an excuse.

Some actions we can always take when we identify this situation at the work table include:

• Bringing the issue to light.
• Differentiating and helping others differentiate between the three variables.
• Understanding that potential impact can be minimized through concrete actions, never by chance.